Thursday, February 07, 2008

McCain's Problem Is Great News For America

While the Democratic primary shows a nearly deadlocked battle between Hillary and Barack, the media narrative of Democrats being split amongst themselves while the Republicans are cohesive is long gone. It is true that McCain will almost certainly be the nominee as it stands now and the Democrats race is still up in the air, but the delegate numbers only reflects the surface of the issue. McCain's problem is far more complex.

From ABC News:

In his path toward the Republican nomination, McCain has been continually hammered by conservatives including influential talk show host Rush Limbaugh, commentator and author Ann Coulter, and James Dobson, the evangelical Christian founder of Focus on the Family.

"For all intents and purposes, McCain is the Republican nominee," a defeated Limbaugh said on his radio show today. Limbaugh suggested McCain will march Republicans to defeat in November unless he picks former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, who did well among Christian evangelicals last night, as his running mate.

"Here's the thing about McCain: he can't win conservatives in the South by virtue of this primary yesterday," Limbaugh said. "These blue states that McCain won last night are places where he has no chance in November."

Coulter has suggested she will vote for Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., if McCain becomes the nominee, arguing that Clinton has a more conservative record.

Dobson released a statement to "The Laura Ingraham Show" Tuesday announcing that he would refuse to vote in November if McCain is the nominee.

"I am convinced Sen. McCain is not a conservative, and in fact, has gone out of his way to stick his thumb in the eyes of those who are," Dobson wrote. "A spoonful of sugar does NOT make the medicine go down. I cannot, and will not, vote for Sen. John McCain, as a matter of conscience."


The news that Dobson has a conscience is more shocking than anything else, but more importantly McCain is going to suffer in terms of voter turnout come November. Now while not all Republicans heed the messages of Coulter and Dobson, they do represent a percentage of the party that will not vote for McCain in the numbers that he needs. That is especially so when you look at how energetic Democratic primary voters have been compared to Republicans. So McCain's problem is certainly good news to either Clinton or Obama, but most definitely for the Democratic party as a whole.