Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Election Day Is Over, But The Votes Are Still Being Counted

It is about midnight here in New York and this election day extravaganza is far from over. Obama won Vermont at about 6 to 4 and Clinton got Rhode Island by about the same margin, but the results from Texas and Ohio still have quite some time to process themselves out. Nothing has been heard from the caucuses yet and the big cities of Texas and especially Ohio have not been counted to a large degree. Ohio doesn't expect to count their most populous city until 4:30 in the morning, long after I'm dreaming about ballot boxes and stump speeches.

So a fair guess would narrow Clinton's lead in Ohio and make Texas a virtual tie. Clinton could possibly win both states, but this isn't a winner take all system, as much as Clinton's campaign might want it to be at this moment. When this is all said and done, Senator Clinton may shave off a few delegates from Obama, but she'll still be far behind him in the delegate count. Ultimately, winning states is symbolic, the marathon of pledged delegates (and unfortunately the supers as well) is what truly matters.

Of course we may (and will) hear it spun a different way, that a Clinton win in Texas and Ohio shows a mandate for her to press on and keep the campaign going to Pennsylvania and beyond. Rush Limbaugh seems to love this, but I have to agree with Kos that the more Democratic voters pay attention to the race now the better off the party is. The more engaged the base is through grassroots networking and having a stake in the way the primary shakes out, the worse off McCain is in November.

Finally, speaking of mandates and McCain, one thing was decided for sure tonight. That is McCain and Bush are getting tighter and closer together than ever before. All for the better I say.