Bloomberg's Support Keeps Slip, Slip, Slipping Away

Ever so slowly, the pace of the city polls will be quickening, taking the pulse of a city about to elect (or re-elect) a Mayor and approximately two-thirds of the Council. Today we saw Marist College come out with their latest snapshot of the five boroughs, and it gives Mayor Bloomberg both good and bad news.

From Marist College:

BLOOMBERG APPROVAL RATING DROPS 7 PERCENTAGE POINTS...AT LOWEST LEVEL IN NEARLY 4 YEARS:
Although a majority of registered voters in New York City -- 52% -- say Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing either an excellent or good job in office, the mayor’s job approval rating has dipped 7 percentage points bringing it to its lowest point since June 2005. Bloomberg has been losing ground in voters’ eyes since early last fall. In Marist’s November survey, 59% of the city’s electorate thought the mayor was doing an above average job, a 9 percentage point drop from the previous month. In October, Mayor Bloomberg enjoyed a cushy 68% approval rating.

TURN IT AROUND...PLURALITY OF VOTERS SAY NYC IS MOVING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION:
49% of New York City’s electorate believes the Big Apple is headed in the wrong direction. Only 37% think the city is on the right track. In November, voters divided over the city’s trajectory. At that time, 45% of voters said the city was headed in the right direction, and 47% thought it was moving down the wrong track.

CHANGE IS IN THE AIR...IS IT TIME FOR A NEW MAYOR?
55% of registered voters think it’s time for someone else to lead New York City while 40% say Mayor Bloomberg deserves to be re-elected. Voters reported similar sentiments four years ago when Bloomberg ran for and won re-election. When the Marist Poll asked the identical question in March 2005, a majority of voters -- 56% -- reported it was time for Bloomberg to go. Just 39% said Bloomberg deserved to be re-elected at that time.

BUT...BLOOMBERG RETAINS COMMANDING LEAD OVER DEMOCRATIC RIVALS:
Just what are the odds Mayor Michael Bloomberg will win a third term? The answer: Pretty good if New York City’s mayoral election were held today. When pitted against Congressman Anthony Weiner, City Comptroller Bill Thompson, or City Council Member Tony Avella, Bloomberg leads Weiner 53% to 37%, outpaces Thompson 53% to 36% and defeats Avella 57% to 30%. Bloomberg’s lead has changed little since Marist’s November survey. At that time, Bloomberg was in front of Weiner 51% to 37%, he led Thompson 52% to 32%, and the mayor fended off Avella 54% to 28%.

In a nutshell, Mayor Bloomberg would win if the election were held today, but since it's not, there is plenty of time for his opposition to dig into those negatives the Mayor has and capitalize on them. If I were on either Weiner's or Thompson's campaign, I'd be stressing how bad times are and connect them with what the Mayor has done to add to our problems. Now if the electorate only made above $300,000, I'd say there isn't much to be done. However, the median salary in the city is about a quarter million dollars shy of that number, so start connecting him to the problems of the increasing gap between the rich and the poor. Bloomberg is going to run on his great "fiscal stewardship" and people will believe him if they do not hear how that managment has only been for the benefit of the wealthiest of New Yorkers.

Oh and as the poll continues on, keep reminding voters about the term limits fiasco, over and over and over again.

Got it?

Marist Shows Bloomberg's Popularity Slipping Away

For the last two months term limits has been one of the most widely discussed political issues in the City of New York. The center of that controversy is unarguably Michael Bloomberg, with the capitulating City Council right beside him. Bloomberg seems to think that the public will forget about it by next year and that his popularity was untouchable, but the polls are starting to prove him wrong.

From Marist:

What a Difference a Month Makes…Bloomberg’s Approval Rating Slips Significantly:

Although a majority of registered voters in New York City -- 59% -- think Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing either an excellent or good job in office, his approval rating has dropped significantly. This is the first time since 2005 that his job performance rating has dipped into the 50 percent range. In a Marist Poll conducted in August 2005, 53% of the city’s voters thought Mayor Bloomberg was doing well in his position. Bloomberg’s approval rating has fallen since last month when 68% of the electorate thought Bloomberg was doing an above average job. Currently, Bloomberg is far from perfect in the eyes of 39% of voters. 28% report his job as fair while 11% say he is performing poorly as mayor. [...]

Good or Bad? More Voters View Term Limit Extension as Bad for the City: Mayor Bloomberg may have won the battle to extend New York City’s term limits, allowing him to run for a third term, but he has a long way to go to convince New Yorkers that the change is a good one. While 30% of the electorate believes the decision by the City Council and the mayor is good for the city, a plurality of the electorate -- 43% -- disagrees with the change. In fact, 48% want the courts to overturn the decision and revert back to the two term limit. 42% think the courts should uphold the new law.

While the city is only slightly more against the term limits extension than against, their view of the Mayor has dropped precipitously:

Bloomberg’s Bid for Third Term…A Political Pitfall? Mayor Bloomberg’s push for a third term may hurt him at the polls. In light of his decision, 40% of New York City voters say they are less likely to support the mayor’s potential 2009 re-election bid compared with 19% of the electorate who say they are more likely to back Bloomberg’s quest. 41% say his decision on term limits makes no difference to their vote.

Those are terrible numbers for the Mayor in regards to how the term limits extension has affected New Yorkers. What's worse for him is the polls showing the match-up against Anthony Weiner, Bill Thompson and Tony Avella:

Bloomberg with Lead Over Democratic Opponents…Receives Slim Majority: If New York City’s mayoral election were held today, Mayor Michael Bloomberg would achieve his goal of a third term. However, he has lost some support among voters. When placed up against Congressman Anthony Weiner, City Comptroller Bill Thompson, or City Council Member Tony Avella, Bloomberg leads Weiner 51% to 37%, outpaces Thompson 52% to 32% and defeats Avella 54% to 28%. Last month, voters had Bloomberg leading Weiner 56% to 30% and in front of Thompson 55% to 30%.

For someone who is a supposedly popular Mayor, having re-elect numbers in the low 50s is a terrible place to start out before the Democratic challengers achieve full name recognition. And according to the Marist pollster Lee Miringoff, it isn't just term limits that is hurting Bloomberg, it's the economy as well.

In a nutshell, Bloomberg may have won his battle at City Hall, but by no means is his re-election a done deal.