Friday, November 21, 2008

Marist Shows Bloomberg's Popularity Slipping Away

For the last two months term limits has been one of the most widely discussed political issues in the City of New York. The center of that controversy is unarguably Michael Bloomberg, with the capitulating City Council right beside him. Bloomberg seems to think that the public will forget about it by next year and that his popularity was untouchable, but the polls are starting to prove him wrong.

From Marist:

What a Difference a Month Makes…Bloomberg’s Approval Rating Slips Significantly:

Although a majority of registered voters in New York City -- 59% -- think Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing either an excellent or good job in office, his approval rating has dropped significantly. This is the first time since 2005 that his job performance rating has dipped into the 50 percent range. In a Marist Poll conducted in August 2005, 53% of the city’s voters thought Mayor Bloomberg was doing well in his position. Bloomberg’s approval rating has fallen since last month when 68% of the electorate thought Bloomberg was doing an above average job. Currently, Bloomberg is far from perfect in the eyes of 39% of voters. 28% report his job as fair while 11% say he is performing poorly as mayor. [...]

Good or Bad? More Voters View Term Limit Extension as Bad for the City: Mayor Bloomberg may have won the battle to extend New York City’s term limits, allowing him to run for a third term, but he has a long way to go to convince New Yorkers that the change is a good one. While 30% of the electorate believes the decision by the City Council and the mayor is good for the city, a plurality of the electorate -- 43% -- disagrees with the change. In fact, 48% want the courts to overturn the decision and revert back to the two term limit. 42% think the courts should uphold the new law.
While the city is only slightly more against the term limits extension than against, their view of the Mayor has dropped precipitously:

Bloomberg’s Bid for Third Term…A Political Pitfall? Mayor Bloomberg’s push for a third term may hurt him at the polls. In light of his decision, 40% of New York City voters say they are less likely to support the mayor’s potential 2009 re-election bid compared with 19% of the electorate who say they are more likely to back Bloomberg’s quest. 41% say his decision on term limits makes no difference to their vote.
Those are terrible numbers for the Mayor in regards to how the term limits extension has affected New Yorkers. What's worse for him is the polls showing the match-up against Anthony Weiner, Bill Thompson and Tony Avella:

Bloomberg with Lead Over Democratic Opponents…Receives Slim Majority: If New York City’s mayoral election were held today, Mayor Michael Bloomberg would achieve his goal of a third term. However, he has lost some support among voters. When placed up against Congressman Anthony Weiner, City Comptroller Bill Thompson, or City Council Member Tony Avella, Bloomberg leads Weiner 51% to 37%, outpaces Thompson 52% to 32% and defeats Avella 54% to 28%. Last month, voters had Bloomberg leading Weiner 56% to 30% and in front of Thompson 55% to 30%.
For someone who is a supposedly popular Mayor, having re-elect numbers in the low 50s is a terrible place to start out before the Democratic challengers achieve full name recognition. And according to the Marist pollster Lee Miringoff, it isn't just term limits that is hurting Bloomberg, it's the economy as well.

In a nutshell, Bloomberg may have won his battle at City Hall, but by no means is his re-election a done deal.