Bloomberg's Support Keeps Slip, Slip, Slipping Away

Ever so slowly, the pace of the city polls will be quickening, taking the pulse of a city about to elect (or re-elect) a Mayor and approximately two-thirds of the Council. Today we saw Marist College come out with their latest snapshot of the five boroughs, and it gives Mayor Bloomberg both good and bad news.

From Marist College:

BLOOMBERG APPROVAL RATING DROPS 7 PERCENTAGE POINTS...AT LOWEST LEVEL IN NEARLY 4 YEARS:
Although a majority of registered voters in New York City -- 52% -- say Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing either an excellent or good job in office, the mayor’s job approval rating has dipped 7 percentage points bringing it to its lowest point since June 2005. Bloomberg has been losing ground in voters’ eyes since early last fall. In Marist’s November survey, 59% of the city’s electorate thought the mayor was doing an above average job, a 9 percentage point drop from the previous month. In October, Mayor Bloomberg enjoyed a cushy 68% approval rating.

TURN IT AROUND...PLURALITY OF VOTERS SAY NYC IS MOVING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION:
49% of New York City’s electorate believes the Big Apple is headed in the wrong direction. Only 37% think the city is on the right track. In November, voters divided over the city’s trajectory. At that time, 45% of voters said the city was headed in the right direction, and 47% thought it was moving down the wrong track.

CHANGE IS IN THE AIR...IS IT TIME FOR A NEW MAYOR?
55% of registered voters think it’s time for someone else to lead New York City while 40% say Mayor Bloomberg deserves to be re-elected. Voters reported similar sentiments four years ago when Bloomberg ran for and won re-election. When the Marist Poll asked the identical question in March 2005, a majority of voters -- 56% -- reported it was time for Bloomberg to go. Just 39% said Bloomberg deserved to be re-elected at that time.

BUT...BLOOMBERG RETAINS COMMANDING LEAD OVER DEMOCRATIC RIVALS:
Just what are the odds Mayor Michael Bloomberg will win a third term? The answer: Pretty good if New York City’s mayoral election were held today. When pitted against Congressman Anthony Weiner, City Comptroller Bill Thompson, or City Council Member Tony Avella, Bloomberg leads Weiner 53% to 37%, outpaces Thompson 53% to 36% and defeats Avella 57% to 30%. Bloomberg’s lead has changed little since Marist’s November survey. At that time, Bloomberg was in front of Weiner 51% to 37%, he led Thompson 52% to 32%, and the mayor fended off Avella 54% to 28%.

In a nutshell, Mayor Bloomberg would win if the election were held today, but since it's not, there is plenty of time for his opposition to dig into those negatives the Mayor has and capitalize on them. If I were on either Weiner's or Thompson's campaign, I'd be stressing how bad times are and connect them with what the Mayor has done to add to our problems. Now if the electorate only made above $300,000, I'd say there isn't much to be done. However, the median salary in the city is about a quarter million dollars shy of that number, so start connecting him to the problems of the increasing gap between the rich and the poor. Bloomberg is going to run on his great "fiscal stewardship" and people will believe him if they do not hear how that managment has only been for the benefit of the wealthiest of New Yorkers.

Oh and as the poll continues on, keep reminding voters about the term limits fiasco, over and over and over again.

Got it?

New Yorkers Overwhelmingly Support Millionaire's Tax

I wonder if Majority Leader Malcolm Smith is shocked and surprised at this, but New Yorkers want to see an additional tax on our state's millionaires (and to varying degrees people that make in upward of $250K) by a margin of four to one. Many of the other State Senators certainly get it, and are proposing bills to generate that income instead of making more spending cuts. One way the poll is being spun though is that respondents would rather see cuts than have that tax, but as with all polls, the wording of the questions make all the difference.

From The Albany Project:

Also, though New Yorkers overwhelmingly favor an modest increase in the rate paid by the wealthiest of us, they say they also would cut spending before "raising taxes".

Despite support for the Millionaires Tax, voters say 51 - 34 percent that they would rather cut state services than raise taxes.

Of course, this might have something with the way the question is posed.

41. To balance the state budget, if you had to choose, would you prefer - raising taxes or cutting government programs and services?

I'd have loved to see the question posed this way: "To balance the state budget, if you had to chose, would you prefer - cutting government programs and services or raising taxes on the wealthiest New Yorkers?"

I suspect those numbers would look rather different.

If Quinnipiac managed to change that wording for the next poll, I am almost certain those numbers would drastically change. In fact, I'd suggest the numbers would be nearly similar to the four to one response seen for the millionaire's tax question. Now if the members of the Senate would only reflect how the people feel, then we could start moving on this most important issue concerning the budget gap.

Cheney Hates Us All

Yes thats right. Dick Cheney hates me, he hates you and he hates everyone that might want to get in his way or merely disagree with him. He might as well call himself Archduke or Baron Cheney. To our Vice-President, he is above the law and above any average American, even those that voted for him. He showed his disdain for us peasants yet again, this time on Good Morning America.

From RawStory:

Vice President Dick Cheney had a different message. Informed during a Good Morning America interview broadcast Wednesday that two-thirds of Americans now think the war was not worth fighting, Cheney said: "So?"

"So you don't care what the American people think?" ABC's Martha Raddatz asked.

He added: "I think we cannot be blown off course by the fluctuations of the public opinion polls. There has in fact been fundamental change and transformation and improvement for the better. That's a huge accomplishment."

So sorry to bother you Dick, I know you are so busy fishing on the Sultan of Oman's yacht. I wonder if he is using his shotgun instead of a fishing pole? Or perhaps he's just there to piss off the Iranians, with that fishing ground oh so close to Iran.

Hmmmm

(Forced) Ignorance Is Bliss

Does it befuddle a few of us progressives out there that some people are beginning to see Iraq in a new light, that perhaps things are getting better after all? Of course we know that things aren't hunky dorry, it is just that the traditional media isn't covering the news on the ground and likewise attributing some declines in violence to President Bush's surge when there is no way it could be the case. The unfortunate, yet obvious answer to me is that...well, people have short attention spans and if they don't see it on their nightly news for a few days or weeks then they'll assume the problem is over.

From Reuters:

WASHINGTON, Dec 19 (Reuters) - A recent decline in U.S. news coverage from Iraq coincides with improved public opinion about the war just as the 2008 presidential campaign heads to an early showdown, a study released on Wednesday said.

The study by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism said the volume of coverage from Iraq fell from 8 percent of all news stories in the first six months of 2007 to 5 percent between June and October due mainly to a decline in news accounts of daily attacks.

The falloff coincided with a 14 percentage point climb -- from 34 to 48 percent -- in the number of Americans who believe the U.S. military effort in Iraq is going either fairly or very well, according to Pew.

While the amount of stories declines, the portrait of Iraq is merely being clouded, not turning as some conservatives would like to suggest. This diary from DailyKos is quite an interesting piece about the media and government spin, something to keep in mind as you tune in to CNN or ABC. Just because the media does or doesn't say something doesn't mean something else isn't happening. Never believe what you hear or read on face value, always look for many sources to corroborate a narrative to see if its true or not.