Here's A Stat The Traditional Media Won't Show Much

This has to have the Republican party shaking, trembling and quivering with fear. Not only did one of the anti-establishment candidates win (e.g. Huckabee), they were destroyed in the overall vote.

From The Group News Blog:

Total Voter Turnout (approximate)

356,000

Percentage of total vote
24.5% Obama
20.5% Edwards
19.8% Clinton
11.4% Huckabee (R)

I can't wait to see how the numbers turn out in New Hampshire. They do not have dedicated evangelicals in that state on the scale of Iowa. That was what propelled Huckabee to victory last night, now the hottest ticket in the small state of New Hampshire is John McCain. If you can tell me something thrilling about that old fart, it would be shocking.

The Man That Beat Out Clinton

What an amazing speaker, and what a great President he would be for our country:

Insert "9/11" Here

Many pundits and "experts" on both sides are talking about many different things now, but one thing is for sure...Rudy is finished. He drew 4 percent of the vote last night and finished behind everybody. Even Ron Paul more than doubled his numbers. Now Rudy is looking weak in New Hampshire and his "late-state" strategy is falling to pieces as his support drops in places like South Carolina and especially Florida. So one must beg the question, are you scared Rudy?

From The Daily News:

"None of this worries me - Sept. 11, there were times I was worried," Giuliani said.

"We're sitting in a pretty good position right now. So we're not worried and not concerned," he told a news conference here. "Maybe other people acted nervous in a situation like this, but this is not unexpected."

Good position eh? You mean like when after you sit down on a giant water slide and you are slowly moving into the tube, right before you rocket down to Earth?

The truth is, Rudy is scrambling and scrambling fast. His advisers pushed him to go on a barnstorming tour of New Hampshire for the next five days so he can hopefully gain some ground up there before all hope is lost. Unfortunately for Mr. Giuliani, the more people see of him the more they want to vote for someone else.

Perhaps we should add Rudy's name to the definition of a Catch-22.

"The Day That Would Never Come"

You got to hand it to the man that got 38 percent last night in Iowa:

Caucus-mania!!!

It is just a little past ten here on the East Coast and the first part of Election 2008 is now over. So what does it all mean? Obama takes 1st for the Dems, Huckabee crushes Romney et al. and now Clinton and Edwards are digging it out for second, though it looks like Edwards is going to eek it out past Ms. Inevitability at the moment.

The punditry class is going nuts and Chris Matthews is helping to lead the charge. Everyone is going to be talking and they have five days to do it before New Hampshire becomes the first state to cast actual ballots in their primary. From there on out the "momentum" is supposed to be cast and for now Obama is looking good and Clinton is looking bad, while Edwards is going to hang in there. Despite which way the Iowa Dems voted, they came out large, and attracted a massive amount of Independents. That means the Republicans should be running scared about where the "middle" of the country is going.

Speaking of Republicans, they got less than half the turnout of the Democrats. A minister turned governor swept the state out from an area not too far from "Nowheresville," Romney came in a distant second and the rest of the old farts are way down near 10 percent or below. The national front-runner is polling somewhere around four percent and McCain is somehow the winner in all of this, at least according to pundit-extraordinaire Chris "Tweety bird" Matthews.

Well enough about that, I'm going back to watching Cenk Uygur at the Young Turks/Brave New Films election special.

The Audacity Of An Obama Staffer

Usually a Presidential campaign wants to be friendly with the media, but that wasn't the case for Obama's outfit on this frigid day in Iowa. Several anti-war protesters came to the office in Des Moines to get an answer to why he will not support getting the troops out and the press wanted cover the story, but that wasn't going to happen with staffer Josh Earnest around. Instead of this being a minor story, Earnest blew it up by kicking the press out the front door while having the protesters escorted out the side into the waiting arms of the police.

From The Atlantic Free Press:

Though he knew who the protesters represented and why they had come to Obama campaign headquarters (this reporter heard an Obama staffer say, “We knew they were coming and we have a plan to deal with them”), Earnest told one Iowa newspaper, “They basically just sort of came into the front office and were talking loudly and being disruptive.”

In a remarkably short-sighted and unsuccessful bid to minimize news coverage of an event that he perceived to be unflattering to Obama, Earnest did not stop at ejecting reporters and insisting that they conduct their work on the city sidewalk, about 30 feet from the headquarters main entrance. When he decided to have the non-violent peace activists arrested and removed by Des Moines Police Department, Earnest had the officers take the activists out through a side door, away from the gaze of reporters and the cameras of photojournalists.
According to Brian Terrell, executive director of the Catholic Peace Ministry and one of the eight arrested, VCNV has noted a number of areas in which Obama’s positions are troubling.

“Not only has Obama supported sanctions against Iran, he has also stated emphatically that in dealing with Iran, all options including military ones have to be on the table,” said Terrell.

“It’s astonishing, too, that he supports an increase in military spending,” said Terrell.

I can't wait to see the back-pedaling Obama is going to have to do because of this staffer. A good assumption is that he'll be fired either today or tomorrow. The important thing however is why those protesters from the Catholic Peace Ministry were there. Obama refuses to talk about a real plan to get our troops out and shows it by not even responding to anti-war activists. Plenty of Iowans and the majority of Americans want us out of Iraq, but while Obama vaguely talks about change, he certainly does not seem committed to making it so.

Separating Fred

Besides some hype at the beginning, there really never was much to the Fred Thompson campaign. For a few moments, conservatives touted him as the man who would win over the country, bring a Reagan-esque quality of candidate to the race and from that, he'd raise tons of cash and volunteers. Of course we knew this wouldn't happen and now it looks like this car crash is being towed to the junkyard.

From The Politico:

“Without a solid third-place finish, there’s no point in going on,” a Thompson adviser said Wednesday. “It was an honorable race, and he turned out to be a good candidate. The moment had just passed.”

A Thompson campaign source said there is “a strong likelihood” that if Thompson comes in a distant third in Iowa, with less than 15 percent of the vote, he would drop out soon—most likely before this weekend’s New Hampshire presidential debates.

The Thompson sources said they were describing a consensus expectation that is now widespread among his political circle, not announcing a decision that the candidate himself has definitively reached.

Fred dropped the ten ton weight on his foot when he said the campaign needed a second place finish in Iowa, something highly unlikely to happen tonight. He is averaging 11.5 points in the polls, higher than Paul or Giuliani but still in 4th place. As of this weekend, Republican voters will have one less candidate to choose that they can't stand.

Oh and of course, he's denying it all. Talk to us in a few days Fred, if you are still around at all.

Sleep Can Be A Good Thing

I've heard a doctor or two say that it is advised to get six to eight hours of sleep depending on the needs of your body. Proper rest is good for all functions of life, whether that be metabolism, brain function or campaigning abilities. Nevertheless, I have spent many a sleepless night working on reports, GOTV efforts and supplying volunteer outposts for whatever district or town I've done field work. I can't say that it hurt or helped for me to have pulled those all-nighters, but it is certainly taking a toll on the candidates in Iowa.

From The NY Times:

“We had 300 people outside, literally freezing to death,” Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton marveled on Tuesday before a crowd in Iowa City. (No deaths were reported, in fact.)

“I won’t remember Iowans,” Mitt Romney declared in Altoona the other day before his wife, Ann, corrected him. (He meant that he would “never forget” Iowans.)

Mike Huckabee offered his “apologies” last week over the killing of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto of Pakistan. (He meant “sympathies,” his campaign clarified.)

Those are just a few examples from the last few days. Richardson blames his gaffe saying being gay was a choice due to a long flight. And of course we all remember the infamous Dean scream that the media continuously hammered him on (and some still do). Edwards just finished pulling an all-nighter through the Hawkeye state, with events at 2:15 and 5:15 in the morning. Thankfully for the JRE campaign, nothing has been noted by the press. If he can hold it together through the day, he can get at least a little well deserved rest after the caucus results come in tonight.

Less Than 36 Hours To Go

Just like that, the year is now 2008 and the Iowa Caucus is slated for tomorrow. All of the campaigns are going nuts right about now (except for Rudy that is), scurrying about for caucus-goers to win Iowa town hall by town hall. It is an odd, old system they have over there in the Hawkeye state, but one nonetheless that is going to make or break many candidates. So how are the candidates doing it? All you have to do is take a look at either side of the partisan divide.

From The NY Times:

DES MOINES — On a bitterly cold New Year’s Day two days before the Iowa caucuses, the leading Democratic presidential candidates drew some of their largest crowds of this Iowa campaign season, while the top Republican contenders continued to ratchet up their attacks on one other.[...]

The Democratic side seemed to have more energy, as has been the case, with markedly larger crowds. Mr. Obama appeared to have a fresh bounce in his step as he set off on a fly-around tour of Iowa. His first event of the day drew more than 1,000 people here.[...]

Mr. Edwards, meanwhile, began a 36-hour marathon campaign swing Tuesday, starting with an event in Ames attended by more than 500 people.

“I had people coming up to me after this event today and saying they came in for Senator Clinton, Senator Obama, and now they’re for me,” Mr. Edwards said at a news conference. “They just have to hear it, and they hear it and they hear it from me, and they respond.”

Obama and Edwards sound pretty positive, but the Republicans are doing what they do best, using fear....on each other:

As has been his pattern since his return to Iowa last week, Mr. Romney did not bring up Mr. Huckabee by name during his stump speeches Tuesday. But he bore into him in comments to reporters in Johnston, singling out a comment by Mr. Huckabee on Monday that was reported in The Quad City Times. According to the report, Mr. Huckabee took a shot at President Bush while defending himself from an embarrassing moment several weeks ago when it became clear that he did not know about a new National Intelligence Estimate about Iran’s nuclear program.

“President Bush didn’t read it for four years,” Mr. Huckabee was quoted as saying. “I don’t know why I should read it in four hours.”

Mr. Romney said, “This the kind of stuff you expect of the Democrats.”[...]

The new Web advertisement from the McCain campaign, aimed at Mr. Romney, features horrific images from what appears to be a suicide bombing.

Three-quarters of the way into the advertisement, the first words are spoken as an image of Mr. Romney appears. “Mitt Romney says the next president doesn’t need foreign policy experience,” the narrator says.

Then simply, “John McCain for president.”

You can tell where the higher concentration of warm and fuzzies are here, but in all seriousness, it is easy to see that while the race between Obama, Edwards and Hillary are tight, the race on the right wobbles more than Romney's ability to flip-flop on the issues. Democrats are dedicated to their candidates more or less, while the GOP can't keep it's head on straight.

Giuliani Fades To Black In Iowa

The most important political event of the week occurs on Thursday over in Iowa. Every candidate is slugging it out in the Hawkeye State, all but one, Rudy Giuliani. He left Iowa on Saturday and isn't expected to return until after the caucus if not at all. His hopes in the state have been bleak at best, but once the Shag Fund story hit last month it has been all downhill since. Even when he was there, the presentation by the campaign was lackluster at best.

From The NY Times:

On one side of the street in the middle of town, Mike Huckabee was stumping at a restaurant. Outside was a big bus that said “Mike Huckabee” on it in huge letters, crowds of people and reporters milling around, and another campaign bus from C-Span. It looked like a Hollywood set of a presidential campaign, with all the trappings.

Across the street, Mr. Giuliani had a campaign stop in a bakery and restaurant. The place was pretty crowded, and the event attracted a lot of reporters and photographers, but it all seemed pretty low-key compared with the hoopla across the street – more like a campaign stop in a mayoral campaign than a presidential campaign.

Mr. Giuliani’s final town hall meeting, in Mt. Pleasant, had a better crowd. Aides pointed out to reporters that extra chairs had to be unfolded at the last minute to accommodate the audience. In the end, there were probably around 150 people there – a good-sized crowd for a Giuliani event, but a fraction of what other candidates draw.

Maybe he just doesn't get it, or perhaps he doesn't care. Doing damage control in what was friendly territory down in Florida is taking up more of his time nowadays. Damage control has been his priority ever since Judy Giuliani made all of the national papers. He can't break double digits in either Iowa or New Hampshire and is hedging his bets on the other early states, but that might not be enough for Mr. Tough Guy from the city.

Chelsea Clinton Snubs 9 Yr Old Reporter

I remember being nine years old. It was a happy time in my young life, new sister, good friends, not a care in the world. Now for Sydney Rieckhoff, things are a bit different. She is a "kid reporter" for Scholastic News. Even though she's little, she is following the craziness of the campaigns and tries to ask the candidates questions. She's been good so far, especially since she's a cute kid and her questions tend not to be too tough. Yet for Chelsea Clinton, everything is off limits, even for Sydney.

From RawStory:

Sydney Rieckhoff, a Cedar Rapids fourth grader and "kid reporter" for Scholastic News, has posed questions to seven Republican and Democratic presidential hopefuls as they've campaigned across Iowa this year. But when she approached the 27-year-old Chelsea after a campaign event Sunday, she got a different response.

"Do you think your dad would be a good 'first man' in the White House?" Sydney asked, but Chelsea brushed her question aside.

"I'm sorry, I don't talk to the press and that applies to you, unfortunately. Even though I think you're cute," Chelsea told the pint-sized journalist.

Damn, even at 27, she has already learned how to be cold, yet placating at the same time. I understand that Bill and Hillary wanted to shield her from the press when she was 'first kid,' but now that she is closing in on 30 (yeah, I used those words) it is time for her to face the music (at least from a 4th grader) when out working the rope line for her Mom.

Edwards Is Bringing The Message To Iowa

With four days to go, Iowa is all the rage, and many in the state are getting behind John Edwards. While the race is tight, all that matters is what corner of the room most Iowans end up in at the end of the night.

Huckabee The Hunter: Vote For Me Or Die!

Huckabee touts himself as a man of the cloth (an actual honest to goodness Baptist minister) who shuns science and is out to get the votes of the Republican party faithful. Not only does this candidate not know what the hell is going on around the world, he has taken Puff Daddy's "Vote or Die" initiative to a whole new level.

From Crooks and Liars:

Republican Mike Huckabee took his turn Wednesday, going on a pheasant hunt in Osceola, Iowa during which the Arkansas governor made it clear he is no stranger to the great outdoors.

Huckabee’s team brought back three pheasants — one of which the candidate claimed he personally shot — and promised they’d be “cleaned and eaten.”

Huckabee, who polls show continues to hold onto his lead in Iowa eight days before the state’s caucuses — also joked the trip could serve as a metaphorical campaign message. “Don’t get in my way,” he said while pointing to the three dead birds.

“This is what happens…You vote for me, you live. You don’t…there you go.”

If you see a case of buckshot and Mike Huckabee in the same room, you better run your ass off, whether if it is at a campaign rally or in a church.

So How Does The Iowa Caucus Work?

For anyone outside of Iowa that is wondering how the caucus works, the Edwards campaign makes it easy with this video. Of course it may not be how the other candidates would describe it, but you should be able to understand no matter who comes out on top on January 3rd.

Iowa, New Hampshire And Now...Michigan?

The TBA in New Hampshire is now January 8th. A mere five days after Iowa is going to caucus, the Granite state's ego has pushed their primary up to the eighth day of the new year so they can come before Michigan brand new primary date that was approved by the State Supreme Court today. Many states have already moved their primary and caucus days up and together to seem more important in the presidential primary scheme. If we're starting this thing off on January 3rd in 2008, who knows what will happen in 2012.

Frankly, I think this is all ridiculous. The worst offenders are Iowa and New Hampshire, who are claiming "tradition" to defend their early voting dates. I agree with this guy from DailyKos on this issue, these states need to get off their high horses and be reminded that the race isn't all about them. It is ultimately about winning the White House, that is it. No ifs, ands or buts.

To top it off, the candidates spend tremendous resources in these tiny states in order to get poll numbers, media buzz and finally a good spot (1st or 2nd place) so that the energy can carry them through the rest of the primaries through the country. It is a ridiculous system that needs to be changed. Perhaps we can just do a national system and be done with this madness and competition between the states.