Could McCain Lose Arizona?

I sincerely believe that this race is Barack Obama's to lose, not one for McCain to win. The Republicans have picked such an awful candidate this year (not that the rest of the field was any better) that just can't pull it off on his own. However, as a former campaigner in the Grand Canyon state the opposite is true in Arizona. As a whole it went more than ten points for Bush four years ago and McCain beat his Senatorial opponent by a huge margin. Now the thing of it is, McCain could lose his home state.

From The Christian Science Monitor:

Phoenix - For a senator who consistently gets 80 percent approval ratings from Arizonans, it seems strange, bizarre even, that John McCain would not be a shoo-in to win his home state in November's presidential election. Some in-state analysts say chances are fair, in fact, that Arizona will end up in the Democratic column.

A big part of the uncertainty may be that the Republican Party's presumptive nominee has not distanced himself enough from the Bush administration to satisfy the one-third of state voters who are independents. But Senator McCain has also seen his support erode among Arizona's avid Bush supporters and social conservatives, for not backing the president on issues dear to their hearts. Toss in the resources and clout of Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano, who will be pulling hard for her party's nominee, and anything can happen.

Janet has a huge pull in this state and is loved by both Democrats and independents. She is the rock against the radical and racist agenda of many Republicans in the state legislature. That hard work has made her many admirers and activists willing to work this summer and fall to elect Obama.

Now the latest poll from Rasmussen has Obama within ten points, which is huge for late June. McCain is trying to be all things to all people, both in Arizona and across the country. That type of character and campaign style might just piss off enough people that he will not only lose the election, but even his very own state that has put him in the Senate by overwhelming numbers through the years.